Теория волн Эллиота

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Шёл 1934 год. Вышедший на пенсию финансист Ральф Нельсон Эллиотт на досуге анализировал тенденции финансового рынка цен. Он заметил, что каждый скачок цен вверх или вниз имеет свойство идти волнообразно. Последующие его наблюдения сформировали базу для создания уникальной теории волн Элиотта. Суть её сводилась к тому, что любой спад или подъём происходит волнообразно: каждый резкий скачок сопровождается обратным откатом.

В то время многие увлекались созданием торговых систем для последующей работы на рынке ценных бумаг.

Но, к сожалению, ни одна из них не доказала свою жизнеспособность. Чарльзу Коллинзу, главе Инвестиционного совета, приходило много подобной корреспонденции, которую потом приходилось выкидывать в мусорку. Поэтому не удивительно, что именно ему Ральф представил на суд свою теорию.

Ещё 4 года продлились исследования волны Эллиотта и уточнения всякого рода закономерностей. А потом в свет вышла книга «Закон волн», сделав прорыв не только в изучении финансов, но и таких смежных науках, как психология и социология.

По сути своей, волновая теория описывает не скачки цен на мировом рынке, а представляет собой волновую модель психологического поведения людей.

Теория волн и числа Фибоначчи

Метод изучения ценообразования на фондовых рынках, к которому прибегнул Ральф Эллиотт, сейчас именуется фрактальным. То есть таким, который воспроизводит самое себя на любом исследуемом участке.

Так, если мы изучаем тренд, состоящий из 8 волн одной направленности, то, с большой вероятностью, в каждой из этих волн обнаружим 8 волн меньшей длины, соблюдающих общую тенденцию. В свою очередь число волн 8 разбивается на 5 импульсных волн и 3 коррекционных.

Импульсные волны совпадают с направлением движения, а коррекционные – противодействуют ему. Обычно коррекционные волны имеют меньшую длину по отношению к импульсной.

Так, например, вторая по счёту волна обычно составляет около 60% длины первой. Однако между пятой и шестой волнами происходит перелом и фактически шестая коррекционная волна сравнивается по длине с пятой, а седьмая импульсная наоборот уменьшается.

После восьмой волны может цикл повториться, а может измениться тренд и начаться новая супер цикличная последовательность волн.

Сопоставимость с числами Фибоначчи сохраняется и в дальнейшем. Так, тенденция, продолжающаяся 9-й и 10-й день, обычно не прерывается до 13-го. При более протяжённом анализе медвежьего и бычьего рынка можно заметить супер циклы длиной в 21 и 34 дня.

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